A Week of Extremes/ First Week of 2010

It looks as though the SEARK, as well as the Midsouth will be dealing with several weather complexities this week ranging from sunny, above normal temps today, the possibility of severe weather and heavy rains by midweek, and below normal temps by the weekend. Such is the weather in the SEARK!



Computer models are still having problems handling the path of the upcoming storm system. Majority are showing the storm taking a NE path up through the middle of the nation, up into the Great Lakes region. The speed and the exact path will determine if we have a severe weather outbreak by Midweek. It does look very probable that we will have extended period of rainfall-possibly heavy at times. And if you live north of I-40, you may seem some light snow or flurries by Christmas Day-a far cry from what some models were showing just a week ago.



Still, the SEARK has not really had a taste of true Arctic air as of yet. There are two or three reasons for this:

1. Snow pack in the Great Plains. Although there is some snow up North, it is not that vast and when we do get cold, without the snow pack up north, the air is allowed to modify somewhat by the time it gets this far south. After this next storm, look for a larger snow pack reaching farther south, which will inhibit modification(to some degree) of the future Arctic invasions.


2. Blocking. The NAO is in negative phase, but the blocking high has been setting up further north, allowing for the cold to come and go rather quickly-not keeping it in the lower 48 for long periods of time.


3. Typical El Nino weather. During typical El Nino years (this one is considered a light to moderate El Nino), cold has a difficult time staying entrenched over North America for long periods of time.

I took a peek at the GFS long-range outlook and, New Year's weekend is looking mighty interesting. It shows a storm system tracking across south Texas and moving along the Gulf, bringing moisture up into the SEARK. The rain/snow line is draped across our region. And a weaker system is progged to cross the region on Tuesday, January 5th. (All snow with this one!)

That is a long ways out to make such a prediction. Too many variables involved! It bears watching though. More importantly, we have a possible severe weather event this week to keep an eye on.