After an evening of heavy rain (close to 2 inches in some areas) and few heavy thunderstorms, the SEARK is bracing for it's coldest night of the late Autumn season tonight as temperatures will fall into the lower 20's.
Looking at how the dew points are falling across the surrounding states to the west, it wouldn't be surprising to seem some in the northern SEARK region fall to the upper teens! BRRR weather!
Looking down the road and around the bend, more bouts of below normal temperatures are probably in store for the SEARK. Why do I say this?? For two reasons.
First, take a look at the Arctic Oscillation. The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases. The negative phase brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude. The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the Midwestern United States and western Europe. Take a gander at this baby:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
All that cold air from the Arctic has gotta go somewhere.
Also, the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) blocking index is also in the negative phase, essentially funneling the cold air south into the Lower 48 ! The only thing (my opinion) that could may keep this from being an extremely cold winter is the infamous El Nino weather pattern. It will be interesting to watch over the upcoming weeks how it all plays out.
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