Monday, April 25, 2011

Severe Storms Expected Early This Week; Active Weather Pattern to Continue

This unsettled weather pattern is entering it’s second week, with little change expected through Wednesday. Severe weather is looking rather probable, along with some heavy rain, especially the first two days of the work week.

A stalled out cold front has been the focus for severe weather and flooding rains the last couple of days in northern and western  Arkansas.  A low pressure system will move out of the southern plains Monday as the stalled out front moves north as a warm front.  The low will swing a cold front southeast toward the state sparking off numerous strong to severe thunderstorms.  A “moderate” risk of severe storms has been declared for most of the state tomorrow. 

Although severe weather will be possible for the SEARK region tomorrow and tomorrow night, a similar upper level system will be affecting the region Tuesday, has prompted the Storm Prediction Center to comment in its discussion:

“FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND AS BACKING/INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW EVOLVES IN RESPONSE...SHEAR WILL BECOME HIGHLY-FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION -- AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT FOCUSED ON AR AND VICINITY. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...UPGRADE TO HIGHER CATEGORY RISK APPEARS LIKELY IN LATER FORECASTS.”

 

Stay tuned to your local television, internet, or weather radio frequency.

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