There has been quite a bit of chatter and talk over the last couple of weeks in weather geek circles concerning an interruption in the normal upper atmospheric conditions which could lead to much colder weather in the long term. What I am talking about is called Sudden Stratospheric Warming. WeatherBell Analytics forecaster Joe Bastardi has been mentioning this quite a bit lately.
The idea that upper stratospheric warming can indicate cold outbreaks at the surface is a very interesting theory and worked well last year in indicating both the cold and warm spells that we have through the winter. This warming is happening again and some of the weather models have began to pick up on this.
My finite mind cannot completely wrap around this concept, so let me just share what I do know about it. Once this warming happens, it eventually sets in motion the displacement of the cold, polar air to the south. It takes a few weeks for that misplaced polar air to make it to the lower 48. Such an event occurred back in December of 1983, and again in the winter of 1984-85. Those are some major examples of such events. Others have been less dramatic.
So, around the first part of January, start paying close attention to see if such a dramatic outbreak is on the horizon. I know I will be watching.......
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